Rudy
Barnes, Jr., October 15, 2016
The
leaders of the Republican Party forfeited its future when they allowed Donald
Trump and his radical-right followers to hijack their party, and America won’t
know the future of its partisan politics until after the election. Political pundits predict that Hillary
Clinton will be elected President despite her unpopularity, and that the
Republican Party will be left in disarray.
Trump
is no longer big news. He is just one of
many demagogues who have corrupted American politics. The real news—and the danger to our
democracy—are those elected officials and voters who continue to support Trump.
Media attention should now be shifted from Trump to those Republicans who
continue to support him despite his deplorable behavior. Trump’s supporters have spelled the doom of a
once-majoritarian Republican Party.
If
moderate conservatives can regain control of the Republican Party after the
election it may recover as the Grand Old Party (GOP); but if the party remains
controlled by the right-wing radicals who made Donald Trump their
standard-bearer—and polls indicate that they now represent 2/3 of the
Party—then the GOP will slip into oblivion and leave a political vacuum, much like
the disarray of the Whig Party in 1854 that gave rise to the Republican Party.
It
will be back to the future for partisan politics after the election and the
melt-down of the GOP. America has an
affinity for a two-party duopoly, in contrast to the multiparty parliaments of European
libertarian democracies. Third parties
have never gained traction in America unless one of the two major parties
falters, as did the Whigs in 1854. Then a
third party—or parties—can fill the political vacuum as the loyal opposition to
the dominant party.
The
Democrat Party is likely to emerge as the dominant party with its coalition of
minorities and liberals; but it cannot attract the center-right conservatives
recently displaced by Trump’s radical right in their takeover of the GOP. The GOP will either have to be reborn or it
will be replaced by a new party (or parties) that can hold the dominant party
accountable.
Either
way, American partisan politics will undergo a major transformation. Traditional concepts of liberal and
conservative must be redefined, and right-wing radicals distinguished from conservatives
who value traditions yet support progressive change—and the latter must control
the new opposition party. Also, the role
of religion in politics must be better understood.
Unless
a deficient GOP can restore its halcyon days of Reaganite popularity, it will
become a minority radical-right party in competition with other minority
parties. Trump supporters represent 2/3
of the GOP, but only 1/3 of American voters.
A radical-right GOP is not acceptable to the remaining 2/3 of voters,
and has no prospect of being a majoritarian party. That is a requirement of any party that seeks
to be an alternative to the Democrat Party.
There
must be strong partisan opposition to hold the Democrat Party accountable, or
American democracy will fail. If a
reborn GOP—a Grand New Party—can rise
Phoenix-like from the ashes of Trump’s GOP, it must attract mainstream
political moderates to prevent a partisan meltdown. Otherwise, a new party—or parties—will fill
the political vacuum.
How
could that happen? The American Party of
South Carolina was created to give voters a third choice in a polarized 2-party
duopoly. It could be the catalyst to
replace the GOP as a majoritarian party that could challenge the dominance of the
Democrats, but it would need to attract moderate refugees from a discredited GOP.
For any third party to become the major
opposition party to the Democrat Party it must be led by moderate
(center-right) elected officials.
Strom
Thurmond provided a precedent when he left the Democrats to lead the Dixiecrat
Party in 1948, and later became a prominent Republican. The 2016 election is another political watershed
that will shape the future of partisan politics. Neither the liberal Democrat Party nor Trump’s
radical-right GOP can attract mainstream conservatives who value their traditions
and also support progressive change—but the rise of a new majoritarian party could
change that.
The
origins of the Republican Party provide a useful precedent. It was born in the North in 1854 in a time of
political crisis, when anti-slavery activists and modernists had no place in
either the Democrat or Whig Party. Refugees
from a failing Whig Party gave life to a fledgling Republican Party that Abraham
Lincoln then made into a dominant political party.
Edmund
Burke warned Americans before the U.S. Revolution that they would forge their own
shackles. The American Party of South
Carolina can be a catalyst to save America from its self-imposed bondage to a
failed 2-party duopoly. After 162 years
the Republican Party has forfeited its role as a major political party. Now it’s back to the future for partisan
politics.
Notes:
Jennifer Rubin of The
Washington Post has predicted the demise of the Republican Party and several
scenarios for the future, including a new party to replace a disgraced GOP. See https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2016/10/13/trump-is-melting-down-what-happens-now/?utm_term=.62ca7af5e86a&wpisrc=nl_popns&wpmm=1; also https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2016/10/10/breaking-the-spell-and-the-gops-grip/?utm_term=.831a561d143a&wpisrc=nl_popns&wpmm=1; and https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2016/10/10/the-bottom-falls-out-as-we-knew-it-would/?utm_term=.2de4a23781a0&wpisrc=nl_popns&wpmm=1.
For Robert Kagan’s commentary on why we shouldn’t forgive the Republicans who
sold their souls, see https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-cowardly-gop-has-engineered-its-own-suicide/2016/10/11/ec585af8-8f22-11e6-a6a3-d50061aa9fae_story.html?utm_term=.33d3b07adbbe&wpisrc=nl_opinions&wpmm=1.
Michael Gerson has commented on
why Donald Trump is right: The GOP is
utterly pathetic at https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/donald-trump-is-right-the-gop-is-utterly-pathetic/2016/10/13/6f85a8b2-9172-11e6-9c85-ac42097b8cc0_story.html?utm_term=.35b6cf9fa427&wpisrc=nl_headlines&wpmm=1; and on why Republicans deserve their sad fate
at https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/republicans-deserve-their-sad-fate/2016/10/10/f6761bc0-8ef9-11e6-9c52-0b10449e33c4_story.html?utm_term=.73c70cbc62e3&wpisrc=nl_popns&wpmm=1.
On why women
plan to vote for Trump, despite his lewd comments, see https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/on-a-women-for-trump-tour-across-nc-more-disdain-for-clinton-than-respect-for-trump/2016/10/13/16651978-9160-11e6-9c85-ac42097b8cc0_story.html?wpisrc=nl_headlines&wpmm=1.
On why Americans
are losing faith in democracy and in each other, see https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/americans-are-losing-faith-in-democracy--and-in-each-other/2016/10/14/b35234ea-90c6-11e6-9c52-0b10449e33c4_story.html?utm_term=.a8e68b9df4df&wpisrc=nl_headlines&wpmm=1.
On the pervasive role of evangelical Christianity in
the Trump movement—how the religious right
has made a deal with the devil—see https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-religious-right-makes-a-deal-with-the-devil/2016/10/11/d0783e44-8fd5-11e6-9c85-ac42097b8cc0_story.html?utm_term=.0cf4c7f7cee3&wpisrc=nl_popns&wpmm=1.
On how The
Christian religious right must renounce Trump or renounce its self-respect,
see https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2016/10/07/the-christian-right-must-renounce-trump-or-renounce-its-self-respect/?utm_term=.9c3c05797884&wpisrc=nl_opinions&wpmm=1.
On the history of the Republican Party, see Wikipedia
at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_(United_States).
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